🧾 Fund Performance Snapshot
YTD (1 Jan – 30 Jun): +53.54%
MTD (June): +5.55%
Benchmark (S&P 500):
– YTD: +5.5%
– MTD: +4.96%
It’s been a strong first half, and we’re grateful. But performance without process is just luck. We’re more focused on why this worked — and how to keep it repeatable.
This outperformance came not from predicting market direction, but from adhering to three core principles:
Short-dated volatility strategies — using 0DTE options with conditional logic
Regime-aware allocation — adapting to shifts in macro regimes via probabilistic models
Sizing discipline — managing exposure based on confidence, not conviction
We don’t chase narratives. We build structured trades that adapt across environments.
🌍 Macro Lens — Trump’s $3.3 Trillion Megabill: Fuel or Fire?
On July 1, the U.S. Senate approved what could become one of the most impactful economic bills in recent history — a $3.3 trillion “megabill” backed by the Trump administration.
What’s in the bill:
Extension of tax cuts (especially for high earners and businesses)
Major cuts to social aid programs like Medicaid and food subsidies
Increased funding for military and border enforcement
A $5 trillion expansion of the U.S. debt ceiling
📌 Quick context:
The U.S. government passes laws through Congress, which has two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. For a bill to become law, both chambers must approve it.
Right now, the bill has passed the Senate (by a narrow 51–50 vote). The next hurdle is the House, where pushback is expected — which introduces political uncertainty into the market.
What does this mean for investors?
Let’s break it down.
🧯 1. More Government Spending = More Inflation Risk
When the government injects trillions into the economy, it doesn’t come without consequence.
Inflationary pressure may rise — especially if the velocity of money picks up
The Fed could be cornered into higher-for-longer interest rates
Long-duration assets (like tech) may come under pressure again
Our view: This favors a short-duration posture, with capital allocated to hard assets and volatility-tolerant strategies.
💵 2. Tax Cuts Boost Spending — But It’s Uneven
Extending tax breaks — particularly for high earners and corporations — could lift consumption in discretionary categories. But the gains may be lopsided.
Stronger short-term boost in travel, entertainment, luxury retail
Less impact for middle-to-low income groups affected by benefit cuts
Signal to watch: A bifurcation in consumer spending — luxury gains, budget retail struggles.
Slashing nearly $1 trillion from Medicaid and food aid may erode spending power in lower-income segments.
Discount grocers, fast-food chains, and low-margin retailers could feel the pinch
Potential drag on consumer staples ETF performance
We’re monitoring: Earnings guidance from large-cap retailers with high low-income exposure.
🛡️ 4. Defense & Border Spending = Rotation Opportunity
The bill sharply increases allocations for military and immigration enforcement.
Defense names (e.g., LMT, RTX) may benefit from contract expansions
Logistics, surveillance, and border tech could ride the tailwind
Portfolio impact: We’re selectively screening for setups in defense/aerospace ETFs — using breakout models and momentum filters.
⚖️ 5. Thin Senate Margin = Policy Volatility Ahead
The bill barely passed, with VP J.D. Vance casting the deciding vote. House approval remains uncertain.
Fragile political consensus raises headline risk
Markets may experience knee-jerk reactions to policy noise
Tactical response: This is where we deploy 0DTE structures — to participate without overcommitting capital to a binary outcome.
June’s volatility was not a surprise. Our positioning was designed to respond, not predict.
Key tools that drove alpha:
0DTE setups with conditionally triggered entries (based on implied move thresholds and SPX structure)
Hidden Markov regime models to tilt allocations between high-volatility and mean-reversion strategies
Volatility surface analysis (VIX/VVIX divergence, skew steepening) to flag stress points early
Most traders lose not because they’re wrong, but because they size their trades based on emotion — not probability. We flipped that equation.
🧾 Fund License Update
We’re actively working toward securing our fund license. It’s taken longer than expected — but that’s not a red flag. It’s a feature.
“The more rigorous the due diligence, the more trust it builds.
We’re not trying to pass. We’re trying to last.”
Once approved, this will allow us to serve a broader class of investors, with deeper transparency and institutional-grade infrastructure.
We’ll share more when final clearance is in place.
🧠 Final Thought
You don’t have to predict the market to beat it.
You just need a system that adapts faster than the crowd.
Our job isn’t to win every day — it’s to survive volatility, size opportunity, and repeat the process.
If that resonates, you’re in the right tribe.
Data is King
Sizing is everything
Sean
