🧾 Fund Performance Snapshot

  • YTD (1 Jan – 30 Jun): +53.54%

  • MTD (June): +5.55%

  • Benchmark (S&P 500):
     – YTD: +5.5%
     – MTD: +4.96%

It’s been a strong first half, and we’re grateful. But performance without process is just luck. We’re more focused on why this worked — and how to keep it repeatable.

This outperformance came not from predicting market direction, but from adhering to three core principles:

  1. Short-dated volatility strategies — using 0DTE options with conditional logic

  2. Regime-aware allocation — adapting to shifts in macro regimes via probabilistic models

  3. Sizing discipline — managing exposure based on confidence, not conviction

We don’t chase narratives. We build structured trades that adapt across environments.

🌍 Macro Lens — Trump’s $3.3 Trillion Megabill: Fuel or Fire?

On July 1, the U.S. Senate approved what could become one of the most impactful economic bills in recent history — a $3.3 trillion “megabill” backed by the Trump administration.

What’s in the bill:

  • Extension of tax cuts (especially for high earners and businesses)

  • Major cuts to social aid programs like Medicaid and food subsidies

  • Increased funding for military and border enforcement

  • A $5 trillion expansion of the U.S. debt ceiling

📌 Quick context:
The U.S. government passes laws through Congress, which has two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. For a bill to become law, both chambers must approve it.

Right now, the bill has passed the Senate (by a narrow 51–50 vote). The next hurdle is the House, where pushback is expected — which introduces political uncertainty into the market.

What does this mean for investors? 

Let’s break it down.

🧯 1. More Government Spending = More Inflation Risk

When the government injects trillions into the economy, it doesn’t come without consequence.

  • Inflationary pressure may rise — especially if the velocity of money picks up

  • The Fed could be cornered into higher-for-longer interest rates

  • Long-duration assets (like tech) may come under pressure again

Our view: This favors a short-duration posture, with capital allocated to hard assets and volatility-tolerant strategies.

💵 2. Tax Cuts Boost Spending — But It’s Uneven

Extending tax breaks — particularly for high earners and corporations — could lift consumption in discretionary categories. But the gains may be lopsided.

  • Stronger short-term boost in travel, entertainment, luxury retail

  • Less impact for middle-to-low income groups affected by benefit cuts

Signal to watch: A bifurcation in consumer spending — luxury gains, budget retail struggles.

🔪 3. Cuts to Social Programs = Pressure on Staples & Budget Retailers

Slashing nearly $1 trillion from Medicaid and food aid may erode spending power in lower-income segments.

  • Discount grocers, fast-food chains, and low-margin retailers could feel the pinch

  • Potential drag on consumer staples ETF performance

We’re monitoring: Earnings guidance from large-cap retailers with high low-income exposure.

🛡️ 4. Defense & Border Spending = Rotation Opportunity

The bill sharply increases allocations for military and immigration enforcement.

  • Defense names (e.g., LMT, RTX) may benefit from contract expansions

  • Logistics, surveillance, and border tech could ride the tailwind

Portfolio impact: We’re selectively screening for setups in defense/aerospace ETFs — using breakout models and momentum filters.

⚖️ 5. Thin Senate Margin = Policy Volatility Ahead

The bill barely passed, with VP J.D. Vance casting the deciding vote. House approval remains uncertain.

  • Fragile political consensus raises headline risk

  • Markets may experience knee-jerk reactions to policy noise

Tactical response: This is where we deploy 0DTE structures — to participate without overcommitting capital to a binary outcome.

📊 Quant Strategy Update — How We Navigated H1 2025

June’s volatility was not a surprise. Our positioning was designed to respond, not predict.

Key tools that drove alpha:

  • 0DTE setups with conditionally triggered entries (based on implied move thresholds and SPX structure)

  • Hidden Markov regime models to tilt allocations between high-volatility and mean-reversion strategies

  • Volatility surface analysis (VIX/VVIX divergence, skew steepening) to flag stress points early

Most traders lose not because they’re wrong, but because they size their trades based on emotion — not probability. We flipped that equation.

🧾 Fund License Update

We’re actively working toward securing our fund license. It’s taken longer than expected — but that’s not a red flag. It’s a feature.

“The more rigorous the due diligence, the more trust it builds.
We’re not trying to pass. We’re trying to last.”

Once approved, this will allow us to serve a broader class of investors, with deeper transparency and institutional-grade infrastructure.

We’ll share more when final clearance is in place.

🧠 Final Thought

You don’t have to predict the market to beat it.
You just need a system that adapts faster than the crowd.

Our job isn’t to win every day — it’s to survive volatility, size opportunity, and repeat the process.

If that resonates, you’re in the right tribe.

Data is King
Sizing is everything
Sean